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In November 2003, the US Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) claimed the area planted with coca in Peru and Bolivia combined fell by 35 km² in the year up to June, which would suggest that a crop eradication program in neighboring Colombia was not driving production over the borders. According to its estimates, the area cultivated with coca in Bolivia rose from 244 km² in 2002 to 284.5 km² in June 2003, but this increase was more than offset in Peru, where the area fell from 366 km² to 311.5 km².
However, the U.S. figures were very different from preliminary estimates in September 2003 by the head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Colombia, which indicated that output in Peru and Bolivia may have risen by as much 21%, or 150 km², so far this year. The White House office said its estimate was based on sampling from high resolution satellite imagery. The United Nations used a different technique and had not yet put out any formal estimate for 2003.
At the start of 2003, there were 1,740 km² of coca in worldwide cultivation, and Colombia represented more than 60% of that total. Critics of the Colombian eradication program had predicted that it would lead to higher coca production in Peru and Bolivia.
However, a March 2005 report by the ONDCP indicated that despite record aerial spraying of over 1,300 km² of coca in Colombia in 2004, the total area under coca cultivation remained "statistically unchanged" at 1,140 km². In response to the report, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), an NGO that monitors the impact of US foreign policy in Latin America, observed that the aerial spraying strategy appeared to have hit its limits. According to WOLA, the new ONDCP data suggested a continued "balloon effect" as aggressive spraying in some areas has not deterred new cultivation elsewhere. Official estimates of coca cultivation in Peru for 2005 have yet to be released, but the State Department’s own reporting suggests that cultivation in Peru has increased.
"The stable cultivation in 2004 throws into doubt US officials’ predictions of a major impact on US drug prices and purity," commented John Walsh, WOLA Senior Associate for Drug Policy. President Álvaro Uribe has however vowed to press ahead with U.S.-financed fumigation of coca crops.
In Bolivia, there has been a decrease in clashes since 2004, when Evo Morales and former President Carlos Mesa struck a deal allowing the Chapare region to legally grow a limited amount of coca, in addition to the already legal Yungas region.
In the year of 2006 the Colombian government had destroyed around 730 square kilometres beating all records in coca plants destruction. The Colombian government now plans to destroy around 500 km² of coca plants in 2007 and so there will be only around 200 km² left which will be destroyed in the following years.
Read more about this topic: Coca Eradication
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