Climate Change in Washington - Electricity

Electricity

Washington State currently relies on hydropower for 72% of its power and sales of hydro power to both households and businesses topped 4.3 billion dollars in 2003. Washington State currently has the 9th lowest cost for electricity in the US. Climate change will have a negative effect on both the supply and demand of electricity in Washington.

The biggest factors determining the effects on electricity are annual temperature changes and the change in peak snowpack melt and stream flow. A change in precipitation could also have an effect on electricity supply and demand, but dramatic changes in overall precipitation are not expected. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council predicts a 300 megawatt (about 1% of Washington’s generating capacity) reduction in electricity demands during the winter for each degree the temperature rises. 'vague site, specify needed' Summer demands would probably increase due to more widespread need for air conditioning in order to keep homes and businesses cool, although estimates are still unknown. Washington State’s reliance on hydropower (66% of electricity generation) means that changes in peak snowpack melt and stream flows are important to the supply of electricity. Pg. 38

The available electricity supply could also be affected by climate change. Currently, peak stream flows are in the summer. Snowpack is likely to melt earlier in the future due to increased temperatures, thus shifting the peak stream flow to late winter and early spring, with decreased summer stream flow. This would result in an increased availability of electricity in the early spring, when demand is dampened, and a decreased availability in the summer, when the demand may be highest. The economic impact from climate change in Washington could seriously alter the finances of the state. The Northwest Power and Conservation Council predictions for the future of hydro power are grim. Currently the state generates $777 million in gains from power sales. However by 2020 they expect to see this fall to a deficit of $169 million and by 2040 a deficit of $730 million. These numbers currently understate the production shortfalls for the state because the number of air-conditioners were kept constant at current levels. A recent assessment on climate change in Washington done by researchers from Oregon State University has published estimates that a revenue impact of 5% or less ($165 million). Hydropower is more susceptible to climate change impacts than other sources of electricity, so consumers may be subject to greater rate increases than consumers in other states.

Currently, Washington residents have low costs for electricity due to only a few electricity companies being investor-driven. In 2006, Washington residents paid 6.82 cents per kWh, compared to the national average, which was 8.9 cents per kWh. Most of Washington's power companies charge only to break even. Thus, while prices may rise in Washington, they may still be comparable to other states in the US.

Climate change will also affect how the state purchases electricity. During the summer months Washington sells electricity to states such as California and Arizona because prices for their states is high in these seasons. During the winter months Washington purchase electricity from these states because of the state's need for increased heating and lighting. Therefore increased temperatures in the summer months will alter the selling of electricity to these states and cause the state to money loss.