Peak Oil
As the controversy over Peak Oil intensified in 2006, CERA found itself on the optimistic side of predictions, forecasting that a peak would not occur before 2030, and this would not be a "peak" but rather an "undulating plateau". This opinion has been met with criticism by those who believe a peak has already occurred or is imminent.ASPO-USA described CERA's position as having a credibility problem. Chris Skrebowski considered the CERA report to be a polemic that confused stocks and flows.
In June 2008, Daniel Yergin said that markets have helped fuel a "shortage psychology" that the world is "running out of oil". He also described $120–$150 per barrel as the "break point" for oil, the point where demand erosion would affect the price rise.
CERA researchers have predicted in September 2009 that peak demand has come and gone in the OECD world, likely sometime in 2005. This is not, however, in agreement with peak oil, which is more on the extraction and production side. CERA continues to believe that there is plenty of oil under ground. In predicting peak demand in developed countries, CERA states that long-term demand is softening as a result of demographic and socioeconomic changes in developed countries (such as the aging of OECD populations), improved transportation efficiency, and encroachment by substitutes such as biofuels and natural gas.
Read more about this topic: Cambridge Energy Research Associates
Famous quotes containing the words peak and/or oil:
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