Pre-decision Opinion Polls
Various opinion polls were conducted to estimate the outcome of the proposition. Those margins with differences less than their margins of error are marked as "n.s.", meaning not significant (see Statistical significance). Those margins considered statistically significant are indicated with the percentage points and the side favored in the poll, as either "pro" for in favor of the proposition's passage (e.g., 1% pro), or "con" for against its passage (e.g., 1% con).
According to the director of the Field Poll, the discrepancy between the pre-election polls and ballot results is because "regular church-goers ... were more prone than other voters to be influenced by last-minute appeals to conform to orthodox church positions when voting on a progressive social issue like same-sex marriage."
| Date of opinion poll | Conducted by | Sample size (likely voters) |
In favor | Against | Undecided | Margin | Margin of Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29–31, 2008 | SurveyUSA | 637 | 47% | 50% | 3% | n.s. | ±4% |
| October 18–28, 2008 | The Field Poll | 966 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% con | ±3.3% |
| October 12–19, 2008 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1,186 | 44% | 52% | 4% | 8% con | ±3% |
| October 15–16, 2008 | SurveyUSA | 615 | 48% | 45% | 7% | n.s. | ±4% |
| October 4–5, 2008 | SurveyUSA | 670 | 47% | 42% | 10% | 5% pro | ±3.9% |
| September 23–24, 2008 | SurveyUSA | 661 | 44% | 49% | 8% | 5% con | ±3.9% |
| September 9–16, 2008 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1,157 | 41% | 55% | 4% | 14% con | ±3% |
| September 5–14, 2008 | The Field Poll | 830 | 38% | 55% | 7% | 17% con | ±3.5% |
| August 12–19, 2008 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1,047 | 40% | 54% | 6% | 14% con | ±3% |
| July 8–14, 2008 | The Field Poll | 672 | 42% | 51% | 7% | 9% con | ±3.9% |
| May 17–26, 2008 | The Field Poll | 1,052 | 42% | 51% | 7% | 9% con | ±3.2% |
| May 22, 2008 | Los Angeles Times/KTLA | 705 | 54% | 35% | 11% | 19% pro | ±4% |
Read more about this topic: California Proposition 8
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