Future Production
As of December 2008, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers revised its 2008-2020 crude oil forecasts to account for project cancellations and cutbacks as a result of the price declines in the second half of 2008. The revised forecast predicted that Canadian oil sands production would continue to grow, but at a slower rate than previously predicted. There would be minimal changes to 2008-2012 production, but by 2020 production could be 300,000 barrels per day (48,000 m3/d) less than its prior predictions. This would mean that Canadian oil sands production would grow from 1.2 million barrels per day (190,000 m3/d) in 2008 to 3.3 million barrels per day (520,000 m3/d) in 2020, and that total Canadian oil production would grow from 2.7 to 4.1 million barrels per day (430,000 to 650,000 m3/d) in 2020. Even accounting for project cancellations, this would place Canada among the four or five largest oil-producing countries in the world by 2020.
In early December 2007, London based BP and Calgary based Husky Energy announced a 50/50 joint venture to produce and refine bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands. BP would contribute its Toledo, Ohio refinery to the joint venture, while Husky would contribute its Sunrise oil sands project. Sunrise was planned to start producing 60,000 barrels per day (9,500 m3/d) of bitumen in 2012 and may reach 200,000 bbl/d (32,000 m3/d) by 2015-2020. BP would modify its Toledo refinery to process 170,000 bbl/d (27,000 m3/d) of bitumen directly to refined products. The joint venture would solve problems for both companies, since Husky was short of refining capacity, and BP had no presence in the oil sands. It was a change of strategy for BP, since the company historically has downplayed the importance of oil sands.
In mid December 2007, ConocoPhillips announced its intention to increase its oil sands production from 60,000 barrels per day (9,500 m3/d) to 1 million barrels per day (160,000 m3/d) over the next 20 years, which would make it the largest private sector oil sands producer in the world. ConocoPhillips currently holds the largest position in the Canadian oil sands with over 1 million acres (4,000 km2) under lease. Other major oil sands producers planning to increase their production include Royal Dutch Shell (to 770,000 bbl/d (122,000 m3/d); Syncrude Canada (to 550,000 bbl/d (87,000 m3/d); Suncor Energy (to 500,000 bbl/d (79,000 m3/d) and Canadian Natural Resources (to 500,000 bbl/d (79,000 m3/d). If all these plans come to fruition, these five companies will be producing over 3.3 Mbbl/d (520,000 m3/d) of oil from oil sands by 2028.
| Project Name | Type | Major Partners | National Affiliation |
2007 Production (barrels/day) |
Planned Production (barrels/day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suncor | Primarily Mining | Suncor Energy | Canada | 239,100 | 500,000 |
| Syncrude | Mining | Syncrude | Canada (some China, USA) | 307,000 | 550,000 |
| Albian Sands | Mining | Shell, Chevron, Marathon | UK/Netherlands, USA | 136,000 | 770,000 |
| MacKay River | SAGD | Suncor Energy | Canada | 30,000 | 190,000 |
| Fort Hills | Mining | Suncor Energy, UTS Energy, Teck | Canada | — | 140,000 |
| Foster Creek, Christina Lake | SAGD | Cenovus Energy, ConocoPhillips | Canada, USA | 6,000 | 400,000 |
| Surmont | SAGD | Total S.A., ConocoPhillips | France, USA | — | 193,000 |
| Hangingstone | SAGD | Japan Canada Oil Sands (JACOS) | Japan | 8,000 | 30,000 |
| Long Lake | SAGD | Nexen, OPTI Canada | Canada | — | 240,000 |
| Horizon | Mining and in situ | Canadian Natural Resources Limited | Canada | — | 500,000 |
| Jackfish I and II | SAGD | Devon Energy | USA | ?? | 70,000 |
| Northern Lights | Mining | Total S.A., Sinopec | France, China | — | 100,000 |
| Kearl | Mining | Imperial Oil, ExxonMobil | USA | — | 300,000 |
| Sunrise | SAGD | Husky Energy, BP | Canada, UK | — | 200,000 |
| Tucker | SAGD | Husky Energy | Canada | ?? | 30,000 |
| Oil Sands Project | Mining and SAGD | Total S.A., Oxy, Inpex | France, USA, Japan | — | 225,000 |
| Ells River | SAGD | Chevron, Marathon, Shell | USA, UK/Netherlands | — | 100,000 |
| Terre de Grace | SAGD | Value Creation Inc | Canada | — | 300,000 |
| Kai Kos Dehseh | SAGD | Statoil | Norway | — | 200,000 |
| Saleski | SAGD | Laricina Energy, OSUM | Canada | — | 270,000 |
| Black Gold Mine | Mining? | Korea National Oil Corporation | Korea | — | 30,000 |
| Total | 726,100 | 5,068,000 |
Read more about this topic: Athabasca Oil Sands
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