The 1980s
Having ridden (and driven) the Republican wave of 1977-80, Finkelstein found the 1980s a period of consolidation, helping clients grow their base and win re-election. In 1981, Finkelstein was one of four pollsters designated to do work on behalf of the Reagan White House, paid by the Republican National Committee. (The others were Richard Wirthlin, Robert Teeter and Tully Plesser). Newsweek reported in 1982 that "each of the President's top three advisers has his own numbers man: "Wirthlin became Edwin Meese's pollster, Teeter became James Baker's and now Finkelstein has become Michael Deaver's." Throughout Reagan's first term and into the 1984 re-election campaign, Finkelstein advised Deaver, conducting polls and planning events and visuals (e.g. Reagan's trip to France for the 40th anniversary of D-Day). As The Washington Post reported: "For the White House, Finkelstein is more of an idea man than a pollster, specializing in media events such as the president's "spontaneous" drop-ins on disadvantaged individuals and institutions."
He also began dabbling in gubernatorial contests—in New Jersey (1981), for Jim Wallwork (defeated by Tom Kean in the GOP primary); and in New York (1982), for Paul Curran (defeated by Lewis Lehrman for the nomination).
In 1982, Finkelstein client Orrin Hatch sailed to re-election in Utah, while in Florida, banker Connie Mack III won his first campaign for the House.
That year, NCPAC was successful in only one targeted race (helping to oust Howard Cannon in Nevada), failed in several others, and thereafter declined in influence. The pitfalls of running IEs and campaigns at the same time were illustrated when NCPAC was sued for running ads in early 1982 against New York Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan—around the same time as Finkelstein was working for GOP Senate candidate Bruce Caputo. In 1986, a federal court ruled against NCPAC, and The Washington Post editorialized, "Both NCPAC and the Caputo campaign used the same pollster, Arthur Finkelstein. They could hardly be said to be independent unless the Caputo side of Mr. Finkelstein's brain refrained from communicating with the NCPAC side." (Finkelstein himself was not sued or charged; ironically, Caputo's campaign had imploded after revelations he'd lied about serving in the military, and Moynihan was never seriously challenged.)
1984 saw him involved in three pitched battles for the Senate, the most heralded being the challenge of Democratic Governor Jim Hunt to Helms in North Carolina. The Ellis-Wrenn-Finkelstein team used the permanent assets of the National Congressional Club to wage a three-year campaign to undermine Hunt, including a groundbreaking opposition-research and advertising effort that redefined the popular governor as a tax-raising national Democrat. Helms won with 52%, in what was then the most expensive Senate race in history.
Finkelstein also found success in New Hampshire, as freshman conservative Sen. Gordon Humphrey overcame a tough challenge from long-time Democratic Congressman Norman D'Amours. But in Massachusetts, businessman Ray Shamie lost a close uphill battle to Lt. Gov. John Kerry for the Senate seat vacated by Paul Tsongas.
Republicans lost their Senate majority in the November 1986 midterm elections. Nevertheless, Finkelstein's leading clients won re-election—Alfonse D'Amato in New York, and Don Nickles in Oklahoma. However, his candidate to succeed John East in North Carolina, David Funderburk, lost his primary, and he fared no better in Ohio, where Congressman Tom Kindness made little headway against incumbent Sen. John Glenn. Finkelstein also steered Californian Elton Gallegly to his initial victory for Congress.
In 1985-87, Finkelstein was part of the team advising former U.N. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick for a possible campaign for the Presidency. Kirkpatrick ultimately declined to run.
The Florida Senate contest of 1988—closest in the country that year—was among Finkelstein's signature efforts. Congressman Connie Mack III won a tougher-than-expected primary, but his campaign did not wait for the results of the early-October Democratic runoff. The consultant determined (correctly) that Congressman Buddy MacKay would emerge from the bitter face-off, and began running TV and radio ads re-defining MacKay through his liberal voting record, with the tagline, "Hey Buddy, You're a Liberal." MacKay's primary campaign had focused on ethics—appropriate for defeating Democrat Bill Gunter, but useless against Mack—and he failed to blunt the ideological attack. Still, the "Hey Buddy" ads were unpopular with the press, and 22 of 23 Florida newspapers endorsed MacKay.
Mack continued to press the liberal vs. conservative contrast in debates and ads, closing with endorsements by the highly popular Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, plus footage of MacKay endorsing various tax increases. A slight majority of voters casting ballots on Election Day backed MacKay, but an aggressive GOP absentee program had already banked a margin of tens of thousands of votes, and Mack was elected senator.
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