Alan Musgrave - Musgrave's Realism

Musgrave's Realism

1. If a scientific theory 'X' generates correct novel predictions, then it is reasonable to believe that theory 'X' is true.
2. Scientific theory 'X' generates novel predictions.
3. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that scientific theory 'X' is true.

In the latter argument, premise 1) is still highly controversial, but is has been argued to be less so than premise 1) of the former argument. He argues for the latter premises 1) with such things as the Miracle Argument and novel predictions (above). In this way, he tries to do away with many skeptical objections about realism: he is no more wrong to believe in a theory's truth than an instrumentalist is to believe in a theory's usefulness, but that alone neither justifies nor warrants his claim that the theory is true. Both philosophers have the same chance of being wrong; and, with scientific realism, Musgrave also receives an explanation of events that the instrumentalist does not have. He often says that instrumentalists say the name of the game is "saving the phenomena," but he sees no reason that it should not also be "explaining the phenomena."

As for criticism of premise 1) in the latter argument, anti-realists point out that such a principle can only be justified through circular reasoning. For instance, to arrive at justification of 1), the best one can do is argue that this principle has escaped serious criticism and therefore is reasonable to accept. But why should one accept the corollary principle of "a principle that has escaped serious criticism is reasonable to accept"? The reply is that it itself is a principle that has escaped serious criticism. This boot-strapping is an unavoidable consequence of Musgrave's Critical Rationalism. Musgrave openly admits the circularity of his view, however he is quick to point out that anti-realism has nothing better to offer, and indeed, that not all circles are so vicious.

Musgrave's arguments are presented in his book Essays on Realism and Rationalism, in which he also attacks the most prominent anti-realist views, including those of Nancy Cartwright and those of Bas Van Fraassen.