Analysis
The value of the Admiralty Islands to the Allies was enormous. Their capture saved more lives than they cost by obviating the need to capture Truk, Kavieng, Rabaul, and Hansa Bay and thereby speeding up the Allied advance by several months. As an airbase, the Admiralties' value was great, for aircraft based there ranged over Truk, Wewak, and beyond. As a naval base, their value was greater still, as they combined a fleet anchorage with major facilities.
A well-known rule of thumb is that an attacking force needs a 3:1 superiority to ensure success. In the opening stages of the battle of Los Negros, the ratio was more like 1:4. In the end the Allies won, "simply because," wrote Morison, "the United States and Australia dominated that stretch of ocean and the air over it." When queried about the naval support, General Chase replied, "they didn't support us; they saved our necks". Chase's own defensive tactics were also a vital factor. He was awarded the Bronze Star for his part, as was MacArthur.
Allied commanders, and later historians, debated whether the Admiralty Islands Campaign was the bold action of a great commander or a reckless endeavour that courted disaster. Admiral Fechteler felt, "we're damn lucky we didn't get run off the island," and Admiral Barbey, for one, believed the original plan would have resulted in overrunning the islands in short order with fewer casualties. It would certainly have been much less risky, but it is doubtful whether an assault on the well-defended beaches of Seeadler Harbour would have resulted in fewer casualties. Whereas, in accelerating both MacArthur and Nimitz' campaigns, it shortened the war by at least a month. Thus, in the final analysis, the campaign "had the great virtue of hastening victory while reducing the number of dead and wounded".
For the Japanese, the loss of the Admiralties meant the loss of their outpost line in the South Eastern Area. Imperial Headquarters now ordered the preparation of a new line in Western New Guinea. The Admiralties operation also indicated the Allies were becoming more ambitious and might bypass Hansa Bay. Accordingly, the Eighteenth Army in New Guinea was ordered to prepare to defend Aitape and Wewak as well.
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