Absolute Probability Judgement - Disadvantages of Absolute Probability Judgement

Disadvantages of Absolute Probability Judgement

  • Absolute probability judgement is prone to certain biases and group conflicts or problems. Selection of the correct group methodology or high-quality group facilitation may decrease the effect of these biases and increase the validity of the results.
  • Locating suitable experts for the absolute probability judgement exercise is a difficult stage of the process, more so due to the ambiguity with which the term ‘expert’ can be defined
  • Because there may be little or no empirical and/or quantitative reasoning underpinning the experts’ estimates, it is difficult to be certain of the validity of the final HEPs i.e. there is no means by which guesses can be validated

Read more about this topic:  Absolute Probability Judgement

Famous quotes containing the words disadvantages of, absolute, probability and/or judgement:

    If the factory people outside the colleges live under the discipline of narrow means, the people inside live under almost every other kind of discipline except that of narrow means—from the fruity austerities of learning, through the iron rations of English gentlemanhood, down to the modest disadvantages of occupying cold stone buildings without central heating and having to cross two or three quadrangles to take a bath.
    Margaret Halsey (b. 1910)

    It is in the nature of allegory, as opposed to symbolism, to beg the question of absolute reality. The allegorist avails himself of a formal correspondence between “ideas” and “things,” both of which he assumes as given; he need not inquire whether either sphere is “real” or whether, in the final analysis, reality consists in their interaction.
    Charles, Jr. Feidelson, U.S. educator, critic. Symbolism and American Literature, ch. 1, University of Chicago Press (1953)

    Only in Britain could it be thought a defect to be “too clever by half.” The probability is that too many people are too stupid by three-quarters.
    John Major (b. 1943)

    Feeling without judgement is a washy draught indeed; but judgement untempered by feeling is too bitter and husky a morsel for human deglutition.
    Charlotte Brontë (1816–55)