Disadvantages of Absolute Probability Judgement
- Absolute probability judgement is prone to certain biases and group conflicts or problems. Selection of the correct group methodology or high-quality group facilitation may decrease the effect of these biases and increase the validity of the results.
- Locating suitable experts for the absolute probability judgement exercise is a difficult stage of the process, more so due to the ambiguity with which the term ‘expert’ can be defined
- Because there may be little or no empirical and/or quantitative reasoning underpinning the experts’ estimates, it is difficult to be certain of the validity of the final HEPs i.e. there is no means by which guesses can be validated
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