Disadvantages of Absolute Probability Judgement
- Absolute probability judgement is prone to certain biases and group conflicts or problems. Selection of the correct group methodology or high-quality group facilitation may decrease the effect of these biases and increase the validity of the results.
- Locating suitable experts for the absolute probability judgement exercise is a difficult stage of the process, more so due to the ambiguity with which the term ‘expert’ can be defined
- Because there may be little or no empirical and/or quantitative reasoning underpinning the experts’ estimates, it is difficult to be certain of the validity of the final HEPs i.e. there is no means by which guesses can be validated
Read more about this topic: Absolute Probability Judgement
Famous quotes containing the words disadvantages of, absolute, probability and/or judgement:
“One of the disadvantages of being a patrician is that occasionally you’re obliged to act like one.”
—Dalton Trumbo (1905–1976)
“It is an absolute and virtually divine perfection to know how to enjoy our being rightfully.”
—Michel de Montaigne (1533–1592)
“Crushed to earth and rising again is an author’s gymnastic. Once he fails to struggle to his feet and grab his pen, he will contemplate a fact he should never permit himself to face: that in all probability books have been written, are being written, will be written, better than anything he has done, is doing, or will do.”
—Fannie Hurst (1889–1968)
“Feeling without judgement is a washy draught indeed; but judgement untempered by feeling is too bitter and husky a morsel for human deglutition.”
—Charlotte Brontë (1816–55)