Close Approaches
After the Minor Planet Center confirmed the June discovery of Apophis, an April 13, 2029 close approach was flagged by NASA's automatic Sentry system and NEODyS, a similar automatic program run by the University of Pisa and the University of Valladolid. On that date, it will become as bright as magnitude 3.4 (visible to the naked eye from rural as well as darker suburban areas, visible with binoculars from most locations). This close approach will be visible from Europe, Africa, and western Asia. As a result of its close passage, it will move from the Aten to the Apollo class.
After Sentry and NEODyS announced the possible impact, additional observations decreased the uncertainty in Apophis' trajectory. As they did, the probability of an impact event temporarily climbed, peaking at 2.7% (1 in 37). Combined with its size, this caused Apophis to be assessed at level 4 on the Torino Scale and 1.10 on the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale, scales scientists use to represent the danger of an asteroid hitting Earth. These are the highest values for which any object has been rated on either scale. It has since been downgraded to level 0 on the Torino Scale for both the 2029 and 2036 passes. With a cumulative Palermo Scale rating of -2.9, the risk of impact from Apophis is less than the background hazard level.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, Apophis will pass Earth within the orbits of geosynchronous communication satellites. It will return for another close Earth approach in 2036.
The 2029 pass will actually be much closer than the first predictions, but the uncertainty is such that an impact is ruled out. Similarly, the pass on April 13, 2036, carries little risk of an impact.
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