Prospect theory is a behavioral economic theory that describes decisions between alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are known. The theory says that people make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome, and that people evaluate these losses and gains using interesting heuristics. The model is descriptive: it tries to model real-life choices, rather than optimal decisions. The paper "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" has been called a "seminal paper in behavioral economics".
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Famous quotes containing the words prospect and/or theory:
“Sir, let me tell you, the noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees is the high road that leads him to England.”
—Samuel Johnson (1709–1784)
“Freud was a hero. He descended to the “Underworld” and met there stark terrors. He carried with him his theory as a Medusa’s head which turned these terrors to stone.”
—R.D. (Ronald David)