Nguyen Van Thieu - Re-elected Unopposed and Stagnation

Re-elected Unopposed and Stagnation

In 1971, Thiệu ran for re-election, but his reputation for corruption made his political opponents believe the poll would be rigged, and they declined to run. As the only candidate, Thiệu was thus easily re-elected, receiving 94% of the vote on an 87% turn-out, a figure widely held to be fraudulent. The signing of the Paris Peace Accords in March 1973 failed to end the fighting in South Vietnam, as both sides immediately violated the cease-fire and attempted to make territorial gains, resulting in large battles.

In late 1973, the communists issued Resolution 21, which called for “strategic raids” against South Vietnam to gain territory and to gauge the reaction of Thiệu and the American government. This started between March and November 1974, when the communists attacked Quang Duc Province and Biên Hòa. The U.S. failed to respond to the communist violations and the ARVN lost a lot of supplies in the fighting.

Thiệu expressed his stance on the ceasefire by publicly proclaiming the “Four Nos”: no negotiations with the communists; no communist political activities south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ); no coalition government; and no surrender of territory to the North Vietnamese or Provisional Revolutionary Government (PRG), which went against the deal. Thiệu believed the American promise to reintroduce air power against the communists if they made any serious violations of the agreement took place, and he and his government also assumed that U.S. aid would continue to be forthcoming at previous levels.

On 1 July 1973, however, the U.S. Congress passed legislation that all but prohibited any U.S. combat activities over or in Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam. On 7 November, the legislative branch overrode Nixon's veto of the War Powers Act. In 1973-74, U.S. funding was slashed to $965 million, a reduction of more than 50%. Despite Nixon's growing political difficulties and an increasingly hostile working relationship with the legislature over Vietnam, Thiệu, and most of the Saigon leadership, remained optimistic about ongoing aid. According to Vietnamese Air Force General Đổng Văn Khuyên, “Our leaders continued to believe in U.S. air intervention even after the U.S. Congress had expressly forbidden it ... hey deluded themselves.”

As North Vietnam needed to replenish its armed forces in 1974, Thiệu decided to go on the attack. He stretched his own forces thinly by launching offensives that regained most of the territory captured by PAVN forces during the 1973 campaign, and retook 15% of the total land area controlled by the communists at the time of the cease-fire. In April, Thiệu launched the Svay Rieng Campaign against communist strongholds in eastern Cambodia near Tây Ninh, in what was the last major ARVN offensive. While these operations were successful, the cost in terms of manpower and resources was high. By the end of the year the military was experiencing equipment shortages as a result of decreased American aid, while communist forces continued to gain strength.

By the end of October, the North Vietnamese had formulated their strategy for 1975 and 1976. In what became known as Resolution of 1975, the party leadership reported that the war had reached its “final stage”. The army was to consolidate its gains, eliminate South Vietnamese border outposts and secure its logistical corridor, and continue its force build-up in the south. During 1976, the final general offensive would begin. The communists decided to start by attacking Phước Long Province, around 140 km north of Saigon.

In the meantime, morale in and supplies for the ARVN continued to fade away. Desertion increased, and only 65% of registered personnel were present. Morale fell due to Thiệu’s continued policy of promoting officers on the grounds of religion, loyalty and cronyism. Corruption and incompetence were endemic, with some officers “raising it almost to an art form”. Under heavy criticism, Thiệu reluctantly sacked General Nguyễn Văn Toàn, a loyalist notorious for corruption.

The aid cuts meant that an artillery piece could only fire four rounds a day, and each soldier had only 85 bullets per month. Due to lack of fuel and spare parts, air force transport operations shrank by up to 70%. Due to Thiệu’s insistence on not surrendering any territory, the army was spread very thinly, defending useless terrain along a 600 miles (966 km) frontier, while the strategic reserve was occupied in static defensive roles. The situation was exacerbated by the collapse of the economy and a massive influx of refugees into the cities. Worldwide rises in fuel process, due to the 1972 Arab oil embargo, and poor rice harvests throughout Asia, hit hard.