Mississauga South - Electoral History

Electoral History

The Mississauga South riding and its precursors, while being more competitive than in provincial elections, still has a generally conservative history, and despite voting Liberal since 1993, could be described as a small "c" conservative riding. The Progressive Conservatives held the riding from creation its first election in 1979 under Don Blenkarn, (who served as MP for Peel South, one of the precursor ridings between 1972–1974), until 1993, when he was defeated by Paul Szabo. With the exception of the 1988 election, Szabo has been the Liberal candidate in every election since 1980 (an election he almost won.)

The riding voting Liberal in 1993 can in part be blamed by vote splitting on the right, as Blenkarn was knocked into third place by the Reform Party candidate, although both were far behind Szabo, who only marginally improved on the Liberal performance from 1988, winning 37%, only 2% more than the 1988 Liberal result, and less than the combined vote total for the two right-wing parties. Szabo however greatly increased his percentage of the vote in the elections afterward, winning over 50% in every election from 1997–2004, despite facing a united right-wing vote in 2004.

In the 2006 election Szabo and the Liberals were re-elected again, however the Liberal vote dropped sharply, with the Conservatives coming within 5% of winning the riding, getting 40% of the vote, one of the best performances for them in the Greater Toronto Area. The riding was generally assumed to be a top Tory target for the next election, however, the drawn out and somewhat acrimonious nature of the Conservative nomination process, and Szabo's increased profile as a result of his chairmanship of the House of Commons Ethics committee may have damaged Conservative attempts to capture the riding. Despite the Conservatives strengthening in the 2008 election overall, Arrison was unable to defeat Szabo, and Mississauga South was one of the few ridings outside Quebec where the Liberal Party increased the percentage of the vote received from 2006 (albeit very slightly).