Maes-Garreau Law

Maes-Garreau Law

The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it". Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.

It has been referred to as a "law of human nature", although Kelly's evidence is anecdotal.

The Maes-Garreau effect is contradicted by analysis of a much larger set of AI predictions of 95 predictions extracted from a database of 257 AI predictions, which finds a broad array of estimates before and after a predictor's estimated longevity.

Read more about Maes-Garreau Law:  Origin of The Law

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