Maes-Garreau Law
The Maes–Garreau law is the statement that "most favorable predictions about future technology will fall within the Maes–Garreau point", defined as "the latest possible date a prediction can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the person making it". Specifically, it relates to predictions of a technological singularity or other radical future technologies.
It has been referred to as a "law of human nature", although Kelly's evidence is anecdotal.
The Maes-Garreau effect is contradicted by analysis of a much larger set of AI predictions of 95 predictions extracted from a database of 257 AI predictions, which finds a broad array of estimates before and after a predictor's estimated longevity.
Read more about Maes-Garreau Law: Origin of The Law
Famous quotes containing the word law:
“The so-called law of induction cannot possibly be a law of logic, since it is obviously a proposition with a sense.—Nor, therefore, can it be an a priori law.”
—Ludwig Wittgenstein (1889–1951)