Description of The Cycle
For the sake of argument let's start from a 'soft' period in the cycle, that is a period in which premiums are low, capital base is high and competition is high. Premiums continue to fall as naive insurers offer cover at unrealistic rates, and established businesses are forced to compete or risk losing business in the long term.
The next stage is precipitated by a catastrophe or similar significant loss, for example Hurricane Andrew or the attacks on the World Trade Center. The graph below shows the effect that these two events had on insurance premiums.
After a major claims burst, less stable companies are driven out of the market which decreases competition. In addition to this, large claims have left even larger companies with less capital. Therefore, premiums rise rapidly. The market hardens, and underwriters are less likely to take on risks.
In turn, this lack of competition and high rates looks suddenly very profitable, and more companies join the market whilst existing business begin to lower rates to compete. This causes a market saturation and Insurance Cycle begins again.
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