Combined Intensity and Magnitude Scales
In an influential paper published in 2004, Paul Howe and Stephen Devereux, both of the Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex, set forth a measurement of famine with scales for both "intensity" and "magnitude", incorporating many of the developments of recent decades. The intensity scale is:
| Level | Phrase | Lives | Livelihood |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Food secure | Crude Mortality Rate (CMR) < 0.2/10,000/day and/or Wasting < 2.3% | Cohesive social system; food prices stable; Coping strategies not utilized |
| 1 | Food insecure | 0.2 <= CMR <0.5/10,000/day and/or 2.3% <= Wasting < 10% | Cohesive social system; Food prices unstable; Seasonal shortages; Reversible coping strategies taken |
| 2 | Food crisis | 0.5 <= CMR < 1/10,000/day, 10% <= Wasting < 20%, and/or prevalence of oedema | Social system stressed but largely cohesive; Dramatic rise in food and basic items prices; Adaptive mechanisms begin to fail; Increase in irreversible coping strategies |
| 3 | Famine | 1 <= CMR < 5/10,000/day, 20% <= Wasting < 40%, and/or prevalence of oedema | Clear signs of social breakdown; markets begin to collapse; coping strategies exhausted and survival strategies (migration in search of help, abandonment of weaker members of the community) adopted; affected population identifies food scarcity as the major societal problem |
| 4 | Severe famine | 5 <= CMR <15/10,000/day, Wasting >= 40%, and/or prevalence of oedema | Widespread social breakdown; markets close; survival strategies widespread; affected population identifies food scarcity as the major societal problem |
| 5 | Extreme famine | CMR >= 15/10,000/day | Complete social breakdown; widespread mortality; affected population identifies food scarcity as the major societal problem |
On the magnitude scale:
| Category | Phrase | Mortality range |
|---|---|---|
| A | Minor famine | 0-999 |
| B | Moderate famine | 1,000-9,999 |
| C | Major famine | 10,000-99,999 |
| D | Great famine | 100,000-999,999 |
| E | Catastrophic famine | 1,000,000 and over |
Using this framework, each famine would receive a Magnitude designation, but locations within the affected region would be classified at varying Intensities. The 1998 southern Sudan famine would be a C: Major Famine, with an intensity of 5: Extreme famine in Ajiep village ranging to 3: Famine in Rumbek town. In comparison, the 2000 Ethiopian famine in Gode district would be classified as a B: Moderate famine, and would thus should demand proportionally less of the limited resources available for famine relief.
While each organization working in famine-related areas has its own operational interpretation of specific indicators, the Howe-Devereaux framework has been widely adopted as a common framework by which famine warning and famine relief may be discussed worldwide, in particular in the use of the intensity scale. This has led organizations such as the World Food Programme to refrain from referring to the 2005 Niger food crisis as a famine, as indicators had not deteriorated into a Level 3: Famine.
Read more about this topic: Famine Scales
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