Prediction Markets
For the dumb agent theory to hold, investors should not know what other investors are doing prior to making their decision. While this is technically impossible in a futures exchange (because what other people are deciding dictates the price of the security), it can be done in a Prediction Market. Certain prediction markets are set up in this manner (Such as Predictify, although it allows for participants to change their answers after their initial prediction).
Read more about this topic: Dumb Agent Theory
Famous quotes containing the words prediction and/or markets:
“Recent studies that have investigated maternal satisfaction have found this to be a better prediction of mother-child interaction than work status alone. More important for the overall quality of interaction with their children than simply whether the mother works or not, these studies suggest, is how satisfied the mother is with her role as worker or homemaker. Satisfied women are consistently more warm, involved, playful, stimulating and effective with their children than unsatisfied women.”
—Alison Clarke-Stewart (20th century)
“A free-enterprise economy depends only on markets, and according to the most advanced mathematical macroeconomic theory, markets depend only on moods: specifically, the mood of the men in the pinstripes, also known as the Boys on the Street. When the Boys are in a good mood, the market thrives; when they get scared or sullen, it is time for each one of us to look into the retail apple business.”
—Barbara Ehrenreich (b. 1941)