The dumb agent theory (DAT) states that many people making individual buying and selling decisions will better reflect true value than any one individual can. In finance this theory is predicated on the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH). One of the first instances of the dumb agent theory in action was with the Policy Analysis Market (PAM); a futures exchange developed by DARPA. While this project was quickly abandoned by the Pentagon, its idea is now implemented in futures exchanges and prediction markets such as Intrade, Newsfutures and Predictify. The DAT is technically a hypothesis, not a theory.
While first mentioned strictly by name in relation to PAM in 2003, the dumb agent theory was originally conceived (as the Dumb Smart Market) by James Surowiecki in 1999. Here, Surowiecki differentiated from the EMH stating that it "doesn't mean that markets are always right." Instead, he argues that markets are subject to manias and panics because "people are always shouting out" their stock picks. This, in turn, results in other investors worrying about these picks and becoming influenced by them, which ultimately drives the markets (irrationally) up or down. His argument states that if market decisions were made independently of each other, and with the sole goal of being correct (as opposed to being in line with what others are choosing), then the markets would produce the best choice possible and eliminate biases such as groupthink, the bandwagon effect and the Abilene paradox.
Read more about Dumb Agent Theory: PAM, Prediction Markets, Dumb Agent Theory Outside The Financial Markets
Famous quotes containing the words dumb, agent and/or theory:
“How will it be with kingdoms and with kings—
With those who shaped him to the thing he is—
When this dumb Terror shall rise to judge the world,
After the silence of the centuries?”
—Edwin Markham (1852–1940)
“The average American is a good sport, plays by the rules. But this war is no game. And no secret agent is a hero or a good sport—that is, no living agent.”
—John Monks, Jr., U.S. screenwriter, Sy Bartlett, and Henry Hathaway. Robert Sharkey (James Cagney)
“By the “mud-sill” theory it is assumed that labor and education are incompatible; and any practical combination of them impossible. According to that theory, a blind horse upon a tread-mill, is a perfect illustration of what a laborer should be—all the better for being blind, that he could not tread out of place, or kick understandingly.... Free labor insists on universal education.”
—Abraham Lincoln (1809–1865)