Conflict Early Warning - Origins

Origins

The unanticipated events of the Yom Kippur war in 1973 and that of the Falkland war in 1982 provoked a series of debates over the lack of early warning. The incident over the Falklands had taken the United Nations completely by surprise and it is said “no map of the islands was available in the Secretariat when the invasion began”. The initial drivers, however, "were humanitarian agencies driven by the need for accurate and timely predictions of refugee flows to enable effective contingency planning”. After the end of the Cold War, political scientists at leading academic institutions began modifying old Cold War models of conflict to understand the onset of new wars. The horrors of the 1994 Rwandan genocide also spurred increased interest in operational conflict early warning systems. The FAST-project out of Swisspeace and the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response (FEWER) were responses to the genocide.

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