The field of conflict early warning seeks to forecast the outbreak of armed conflict, or, at minimum, to detect the early escalation of violence, with the objective of preventing the outbreak or the further escalation of violence in order to save lives.
Initial conceptions of conflict early warning materialized in the 1970s and 1980s but the field really emerged on the international policy agenda after the end of the Cold War. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been developed for conflict forecasting and conflict monitoring. Qualitative methodologies typically draw on local area experts with extensive knowledge on one country or region. This is the approach taken by the International Crisis Group, for example. In contrast, quantitative methodologies quantify conflict trends and use mathematical techniques to forecast future trends or "events of interest" (EOIs). For example, the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) project at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) takes this approach. Some approaches to conflict early warning combine both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, such as the formerly operational project called Swisspeace.
Read more about Conflict Early Warning: Origins
Famous quotes containing the words conflict, early and/or warning:
“He that wrestles with us strengthens our nerves, and sharpens our skill. Our antagonist is our helper. This amicable conflict with difficulty helps us to an intimate acquaintance with our object, and compels us to consider it in all its relations. It will not suffer us to be superficial.”
—Edmund Burke (1729–1797)
“...he came towards them early in the morning, walking on the sea.”
—Bible: New Testament, Mark 6:48.
“We have not the motive to prepare ourselves for a “life-work” of teaching, of social work—we know that we would lay it down with hallelujah in the height of our success, to make a home for the right man. And all the time in the background of our consciousness rings the warning that perhaps the right man will never come. A great love is given to very few. Perhaps this make-shift time filler of a job is our life work after all.”
—Ruth Benedict (1887–1948)