Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - Relation To Atlantic Hurricanes

Relation To Atlantic Hurricanes

In viewing actual data on a short time horizon, sparse experience would suggest the frequency of major hurricanes is not strongly correlated with the AMO. During warm phases of the AMO, the number of minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2) saw a modest increase. With full consideration of meteorological science, the number of tropical storms that can mature into severe hurricanes is much greater during warm phases of the AMO than during cool phases, at least twice as many; the AMO is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. The hurricane activity index is found to be highly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. If there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to global warming, it is currently obscured by the AMO quasi-periodic cycle. The AMO alternately obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming. Based on the typical duration of negative and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as late as 2035. Enfield et al. assume a peak around 2020.