Typhoon Tip - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

Three circulations developed within the monsoon trough that extended from the Philippines to the Marshall Islands. A disturbance to the southwest of Guam developed into Tropical Storm Roger on October 3, and later on the same day the tropical disturbance which would later become Typhoon Tip developed to the south of Pohnpei. Strong flow from across the equator was drawn into the circulation of Roger, initially preventing significant development of the disturbance that would become Tip. Despite the unfavorable air pattern, the tropical disturbance near Pohnpei gradually organized as it moved westward. Due to the large-scale circulation pattern into Tropical Storm Roger, the tropical disturbance moved erratically and slowly executed a cyclonic loop to the southeast of Chuuk. A reconnaissance aircraft flight into the system late on October 4 confirmed the existence of a closed low-level circulation, and early on October 5 the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued its first warning on Tropical Depression Twenty-Three.

While executing a loop near Chuuk, the tropical depression intensified into Tropical Storm Tip, though the storm failed to organize significantly due to the influence of Tropical Storm Roger. Reconnaissance aircraft provided the track of the surface circulation, since satellite imagery estimated the center was located about 60 km (37 mi) from its true position. After drifting erratically for several days, Tip began a steady northwest motion on October 8. By that time, Tropical Storm Roger had become an extratropical cyclone, resulting in the southerly flow to be entrained into Tip. Additionally, an area of a tropical upper tropospheric trough moved to the north of Guam, providing an excellent outflow channel north of Tip. Initially, the storm was predicted to continue northwestward and make landfall on Guam, though it turned to the west early on October 9, passing about 45 km (28 mi) south of the island. Later that day, Tip intensified to attain typhoon status.

As a result of very favorable conditions for development, Typhoon Tip rapidly intensified over the open waters of the western Pacific Ocean. Late on October 10, the typhoon attained wind speeds equal to Category 4 strength on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale, and it became a super typhoon the next day. The central pressure dropped by 92 mbar (92.0 hPa; 2.72 inHg) from October 9 to 11, during which the circulation pattern of Typhoon Tip expanded to a record diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi). The typhoon continued to intensify further, and early on October 12 reconnaissance aircraft recorded a worldwide record-low pressure of 870 mbar (870.0 hPa; 25.69 inHg) with winds of 305 km/h (190 mph), when Tip was located about 840 km (520 mi) west-northwest of Guam. In its best track, the Japan Meteorological Agency listed Tip as peaking with 10-minute sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). At the time of its peak strength, its eye was 15 km (9.3 mi) wide. Tip crossed 135°E on the afternoon of October 13, prompting the Philippine Weather Bureau to issue warnings on Typhoon Tip, assigning it the local name Warling.

After peaking in intensity, Tip's winds weakened to 230 km/h (140 mph) and remained at that intensity for several days as the typhoon continued west-northwestward. For five days after reaching its peak strength, the average radius of winds stronger than 55 km/h (34 mph) extended over 1,100 km (684 mi). On October 17, Tip began to weaken steadily and decrease in size; it began recurving northeastward under the influence of a mid-level trough the next day. After passing about 65 km (40 mi) east of Okinawa, its forward motion accelerated to 75 km/h (47 mph) Tip made landfall on the Japanese island of Honshū with winds of about 130 km/h (81 mph) on October 19. It continued rapidly northeastward through the country and became an extratropical cyclone over northern Honshū a few hours after moving ashore. The extratropical remnant of Tip proceeded northeastward and gradually weakened, crossing the International Date Line on October 22. It was last observed near the Aleutian Islands near Alaska.