Two Envelopes Problem - Non-probabilistic Variant

Non-probabilistic Variant

The logician Raymond Smullyan questioned if the paradox has anything to do with probabilities at all. He did this by expressing the problem in a way which doesn't involve probabilities. The following plainly logical arguments lead to conflicting conclusions:

  1. Let the amount in the envelope chosen by the player be A. By swapping, the player may gain A or lose A/2. So the potential gain is strictly greater than the potential loss.
  2. Let the amounts in the envelopes be X and 2X. Now by swapping, the player may gain X or lose X. So the potential gain is equal to the potential loss.

Read more about this topic:  Two Envelopes Problem

Famous quotes containing the word variant:

    “I am willing to die for my country” is a variant of “I am willing to kill for my country.”
    Mason Cooley (b. 1927)