Tropical Storm Fabio (2006) - Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast

On May 22, 2006, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their forecasts for the 2006 Atlantic, Pacific hurricane seasons. The Pacific season was expected to be hindered by the decades-long cycle that began in 1995, which generally increased wind shear across the basin. NOAA predicted a below-normal level of activity in the Eastern Pacific, with 12–16 named storms, of which 6–8 were expected to become hurricanes, and 1–3 expected to become major hurricanes. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility was also expected to be below average, with only two to three tropical cyclones expected to form or cross into the area. They expected that neither El Niño nor La Niña would affect conditions significantly.

On May 15, the hurricane season began in the Eastern Pacific basin, which is the area of the northern Pacific Ocean east of 140ºW. On June 1, the season began in the Central Pacific warning zone (between 140ºW and the International Dateline); however, no storms occurred in the region until July.