Meteorological History
An upper-level trough and a decaying cold front persisted across the western Atlantic Ocean in early October. The interaction between the two led to the formation of an area of low pressure on October 8 to the southwest of Bermuda. The system lacked a single well-defined circulation, though it possessed gale force winds as it moved northwestward. The system gradually became better organized, and though there were no signs of tropical development on October 9, computer models suggested a subtropical storm could form. On October 10, a well-defined low-level circulation developed as a band of clouds formed in the northern portion of the system. Shortly thereafter, curved bands developed in the northwestern portion of the center, while the strongest winds associated with the storm occurred more than 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Based on the broad wind field and the cloud signature, it is estimated the system organized into Subtropical Storm Nicole on October 10 while located about 140 miles (225 km) southwest of Bermuda.
The first National Hurricane Center forecast on Nicole noted the development of convection over the western portion of the center, and that if the trend continued, transitioning into a tropical cyclone would be possible. The first discussion also predicted a peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h). A mid-level trough turned the storm northeastward, and early on October 11 it passed about 60 miles (95 km) northwest of Bermuda. Shortly after passing Bermuda, Nicole developed persistent deep convection near the center, while Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit overpasses indicated the potential of a warm core within the system. Though Nicole attempted to acquire tropical characteristics, strong upper-level wind shear prevented the transition. As the storm accelerated northeastward under the influence of a large extratropical storm south of Nova Scotia, it briefly reached peak winds of 50 mph (85 km/h). Subtropical Storm Nicole lost its circulation as it was absorbed by the larger extratropical storm on October 11.
Read more about this topic: Subtropical Storm Nicole (2004)
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