Forward induction is so called because just as backward induction assumes future play will be rational, forward induction assumes past play was rational. Where a player does not know what type another player is (i.e. there is imperfect and asymmetric information), that player may form a belief of what type that player is by observing that player's past actions. Hence the belief formed by that player of what the probability of the opponent being a certain type is based on the past play of that opponent being rational. A player may elect to signal his type through his actions.
Kohlberg and Mertens (1986) introduced the solution concept of Stable equilibrium, a refinement that satisfies forward induction. A counter-example was found where such a stable equilibrium did not satisfy backward induction. To resolve the problem Jean-François Mertens introduced what game theorists now call Mertens-stable equilibrium concept, probably the first Solution concept satisfying both forward and backward induction.
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Famous quotes containing the word induction:
“One might get the impression that I recommend a new methodology which replaces induction by counterinduction and uses a multiplicity of theories, metaphysical views, fairy tales, instead of the customary pair theory/observation. This impression would certainly be mistaken. My intention is not to replace one set of general rules by another such set: my intention is rather to convince the reader that all methodologies, even the most obvious ones, have their limits.”
—Paul Feyerabend (1924–1994)
“They relieve and recommend each other, and the sanity of society is a balance of a thousand insanities. She punishes abstractionists, and will only forgive an induction which is rare and casual.”
—Ralph Waldo Emerson (1803–1882)