Rationale For Renewable Fuels
The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2006 concludes that rising oil demand, if left unchecked, would accentuate the consuming countries' vulnerability to a severe supply disruption and resulting price shock. Renewable biofuels for transport represent a key source of diversification from petroleum products. Biofuels from grain and beet in temperate regions have a part to play, but they are relatively expensive and their energy efficiency and CO2 savings benefits, are variable. Biofuels from sugar cane and other highly productive tropical crops are much more competitive and beneficial. But all first generation biofuels ultimately compete with food production for land, water, and other resources. Greater efforts are required to develop and commercialize second generation biofuel technologies, such as biorefineries and ligno-cellulosics, enabling the flexible production of biofuels and other products from non-edible plant materials.
Hubbert's peak oil theory suggests that petroleum is a finite resource that is rapidly depleting. Of the worldwide total remaining petroleum reserves of approximately 1,277,702,000,000 barrels (203.1384 km3) (about one half of the original virgin reserves) and a worldwide usage rate of 25,000,000,000 barrels (4.0 km3) per year, only about 50 years worth of petroleum is predicted to remain at the current depletion rate. Petroleum is imperative for the following industries: fuel (home heating, jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, etc.) transportation, agriculture, pharmaceutical, plastics/resins, man-made fibers, synthetic rubber, and explosives. If the modern world remains reliant on petroleum as a source of energy, the price of crude oil could increase markedly, destabilizing economies worldwide. Consequently, renewable fuel drivers include: high oil prices, imbalance of trade, instability in oil exporting regions of the world, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, the potential for windfall profits for American farmers and industries, avoidance of economic depression, avoidance of scarcity of products due to a volatile ‘peak oil’ scenario expected to begin as early as 2021, (though peak oil is not a new idea) and a slowing of global warming that may usher in unprecedented climate change.
Furthermore, the global debate on climate change, along with regional geopolitical instabilities have challenged nations to act to develop both alternative and carbon-neutral sources of energy. Renewable fuels are therefore becoming attractive to many governments, who are beginning to see sustainable energy independence as a valuable asset.
On December 19, 2007, President Bush signed into law the Energy Independence and Security Act, establishing a requirement that at least 36 billion US gallons (140,000,000 m3) of renewable fuel be used in the marketplace by 2022.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), cellulosic ethanol commercialization could allow ethanol fuels to play a much larger role in the future than previously thought. Cellulosic ethanol can be made from plant matter composed primarily of inedible cellulose fibers that form the stems and branches of most plants. Dedicated energy crops, such as switchgrass, are also promising cellulose sources that can be produced in many regions of the United States.
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