Renewable Energy in Scotland - Realisation of The Potential

Realisation of The Potential

The natural resource base for renewables is extraordinary by European, and even global standards. In addition to an existing installed capacity of 1.3 Gigawatts (GW) of hydro-electric schemes, Scotland has an estimated potential of 36.5 GW of wind and 7.5 GW of tidal power, 25% of the estimated total capacity for the European Union and up to 14 GW of wave power potential, 10% of EU capacity. The renewable electricity generating capacity may be 60 GW or more, considerably greater than the existing capacity from all Scottish fuel sources of 10.3 GW. Scotland exceeded its renewable energy target, set in 2007, for 31% of total power generation coming from renewables by 2011, and the 2020 target for the renewable share of total electricity generation has been raised from 50% to 100%.

In January 2006 the total installed electrical generating capacity from all forms of renewable energy was less than 2 GW, about a fifth of the total electrical production. By January 2007 wind power capacity, which has been growing rapidly, reached 1 GW capacity, and the total for renewables had grown to over 2.3 GW. By August 2009 wind power capacity was a fraction short of 1.5 GW and total renewables capacity had reached over 3.1 GW. By mid-2011 these figures were 2.76 GW and 4.6 GW respectively.

In 2011, around 35 per cent of Scotland’s electricity came from renewable energy, exceeding the Scottish Government’s target of 31 per cent, and Scotland contributed almost 40 per cent of the UK’s renewables output. At the end of 2011, there was 4,796 megawatts (MW) of installed renewables electricity capacity in Scotland, an increase of 9.5 per cent (416 MW) on the end of 2010. Renewable electricity generation in 2011 was a record high at 13,750 GWh - an increase of 44.5 per cent on 2010. The bulk of electricity production is derived from gas and oil. 2002 figures used in RSPB Scotland et al. (2006) are gas (34%), oil (28%), coal (18%) and nuclear (17%), with renewables 3% (principally hydro-electric), prior to the substantial growth in wind power output. It should be borne in mind that electricity production is only part of the overall energy use budget. In 2002, Scotland consumed a total of 175 Terawatt-hours (TWh) of energy in all forms, some 2% less than in 1990. Of this, only 20% was consumed in the form of electricity by end users, the great majority of energy utilised being from the burning of oil (41%) and gas (36%).

The renewable energy industry supports more than 11,000 jobs in Scotland, according to a 2011 study by Scottish Renewables. However another 2011 study by 4-Consulting calculated that there was probably a small net loss in jobs in Scotland from government support for renewable energy. They estimated that the offshore wind industry might create between 300-2,200 long-term jobs by 2020. With 20 GW of renewable energy projects in the pipeline, the sector has the potential to grow quickly in the years ahead creating more jobs in the region. Glasgow, Fife and Edinburgh are key centres of offshore wind power development, and the emerging wave power and tidal power industries are centred around the Highlands and Islands. Rural job creation is being supported by bioenergy systems in areas such as Lochaber, Moray and Dumfries and Galloway.

Scotland also has significant quantities of fossil fuel deposits, including 62.4% of the EU's proven reserves of oil, 12.5% of the EU's proven reserves of gas and 69% of UK coal reserves. Nonetheless, the Scottish Government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy production. In 2005 the aim was for 18% of Scotland's electricity production to be generated by renewable sources by 2010, rising to 40% by 2020. In 2007 this was increased to 50 per cent of electricity from renewables by 2020, with an interim target of 31 per cent by 2011. The following year new targets to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 were announced and then confirmed in the 2009 Climate Change Delivery Plan. Maf Smith, director of the Sustainable Development Commission in Scotland said "Governments across the world are shying away from taking the necessary action. The Scottish Government must be commended for its intention to lead the way".

An important reason for this ambition is growing international concern about human-induced climate change. The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution's proposal that carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by 60% was incorporated into the UK government's 2003 Energy White Paper. The 2006 Stern Review proposed a 55% reduction by 2030. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report has further increased the profile of the issue.