Premium Bond Odds
In December 2008, NS&I dropped significantly the interest rate (and therefore the odds of investors winning a prize) due to the corresponding significant drop in the Bank of England base rate during the "credit crunch", leading to strong criticism from Members of Parliament, financial experts, and holders of premium bonds; many claimed that Premium Bonds were now "worthless", and somebody with the maximum £30,000 invested who has "average luck" would win only 10 prizes per year compared to 15 in the previous year. Investors with smaller although still significant amounts will probably fail to win anything at all.
Based on odds as of July 2010 of 1/24000 the expected number of prizes per year for someone holding the maximum of £30,000 worth of bonds has now returned to about 15 per year (The calculation is 1/24000 x 12 (draws per year) x 30,000 (number of bonds held)).
According to the Premium Bond Probability Calculator on MoneySavingExpert.com which updates the latest odds following each monthly draw, the odds of winning a prize are:
- Hold £100 over a year and the chance of winning anything is 3.28%.
- Hold £1,000 over a year and the chance of winning anything is 28.3%.
- Hold £10,000 over a year and the chance of winning anything is 96.4%.
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