Politics of Abkhazia - Abkhazia's Future

Abkhazia's Future

Abkhazian leaders have made alternating demands in recent years. At times, they have insisted on full independence, and at other times, they have requested associate membership in the Russian Federation. However, the Russian government has been slow to respond to the latter proposal, fearing the negative effect of such an action on its relations with Georgia. On 28 November 2003, Russian MP Vladimir Zhirinovsky tabled such a resolution in the State Duma, but saw it rejected. Nonetheless, most citizens of Abkhazia now possess Russian citizenship, and Abkhazians, unlike Georgians entering Russia, do not require a visa.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, European Union and United Nations have continued to insist that Abkhazia must remain part of Georgia, and that at the very least, the many Georgian refugees who fled after the 1992-1993 war must be allowed to return, before any acceptable vote on independence can be held.

The Georgian government has continued to insist on Abkhazia's reunification with Georgia, but has differed in its suggestions of means to achieve this, particularly under the government of current President Mikhail Saakashvili.

They have, at times, proposed two main peace deals. The first one would divide Georgia into seven autonomous entities, each with power over police and economic issues, but relinquishing power over defence and foreign affairs to the federal government. In a later proposal, it was suggested that Georgia and Abkhazia could form one federal Georgian republic, somewhat along the lines of Serbia and Montenegro.

The Georgian government has, at times, suggested that they may attempt to resolve the conflict by military means. After the 2004 removal of Ajarian leader Aslan Abashidze from office after large public protests, Saakashvili suggested that Abkhazia and fellow separatist entity South Ossetia could be reintegrated in the same manner. However, over the following months, he distanced himself from this idea.

Saakashvili has also attempted to portray the Abkhaz dispute as being between Georgia and Russia, owing to the latter's support of the separatists, with the separatist government being portrayed as little more than a Russian puppet. To this end, they have pushed for either the complete removal of, or major changes to the mandate of the Russian peacekeepers, and the removal of Russian military bases from Abkhaz territory. During 2003, they succeeded in achieving the latter demand, with Russia removing its bases, leaving only its peacekeeping force.

Both the Abkhaz de facto separatist government and separatist opposition parties (Amtsakhara) resolutely oppose reunification with Georgia under any circumstances.