Pacific Decadal Oscillation - Predictability

Predictability

NOAA's forecast use a linear inverse modeling (LIM) method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random fluctuations.

Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and is thus limited to ~4 season, the prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism in which an optimal SST structure evolve into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impact the North Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge.

Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally forced and internally generated Pacific variability.