North American Monsoon - Variability

Variability

Unlike the Pacific region of the United States and the west coast of Baja California, precipitation in the NA monsoon is not associated with large-scale mid-latitude cyclones, but with thunderstorms which have very different spatial/temporal distribution characteristics. The difficulty in understanding the variability of summertime convective activity in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico results from the complex interactions between atmospheric circulation features at both the synoptic (100 to 1000 km spatially, 1 day to 1 week, temporally) and mesoscale (several km to 100 km, hours to one day temporally) and the extremely varied topography. The larger-scale atmospheric motions may control the distribution of water vapor and the general stability or instability (that is, the tendency to form storms) in the atmosphere; nevertheless, local topographic effects are critical to the geographic and even temporal distribution of convective activity.

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