Nagorno-Karabakh War - Current Situation

Current Situation

Further information: Madrid Principles, Prague Process (Armenian–Azerbaijani negotiations), Nagorno-Karabakh Declaration, and Landmine situation in Nagorno-Karabakh

In the years since the end of the war, a number of organizations have passed resolutions regarding the conflict. On 25 January 2005, for example, PACE adopted a controversial non-binding resolution, Resolution 1416, which criticized the "large-scale ethnic expulsion and the creation of mono-ethnic areas" and declared that Armenian forces were occupying Azerbaijan lands. On 14 May 2008 thirty-nine countries from the United Nations General Assembly adopted Resolution 62/243 which called for "the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of all Armenian forces from all occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan." Almost one hundred countries, however, abstained from voting while seven countries, including the three co-chairs of the Minsk Group, Russia, the United States, and France, voted against it.

During the summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and the session of its Council of Ministers of Foreign Affairs, member states adopted OIC Resolution № 10/11 and OIC Council of Foreign Ministers Resolution № 10/37, on 14 March 2008 and 18–20 May 2010, respectively. Both resolutions condemned alleged aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan and called for immediate implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions 822, 853, 874 and 884. As a response, Armenian leaders have stated Azerbaijan was "exploiting Islam to muster greater international support."

In early 2008, tensions between Armenia, the NKR Karabakh and Azerbaijan grew. On the diplomatic front, President Ilham Aliyev once again repeated statements that Azerbaijan would resort to force, if necessary, to take the territories back; concurrently, shooting incidents along the line of contact increased. The most significant breach of the ceasefire occurred on 5 March 2008, when up to sixteen soldiers were killed. Both sides accused the other of starting the battle. Moreover, the use of artillery in the recent skirmishes marks a significant departure from previous clashes, which usually involved only sniper or machine gun fire. Deadly skirmishes took place during the summer of 2010 as well.

In 2008, the Moscow Defense Brief opined that because of the rapid growth of Azeri defense expenditures – which is driving the strong rearmament of the Azeri armed forces – the military balance appeared to be now shifting in Azerbaijan's favor: "...The overall trend is clearly in Azerbaijan's favor, and it seems that Armenia will not be able to sustain an arms race with Azerbaijan's oil-fueled economy. And this could lead to the destabilization of the frozen conflict between these two states," the journal wrote. Other analysts have made more cautious observations, noting that administrative and military deficiencies are obviously found in the Azerbaijani military and that the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army maintains a "constant state of readiness..."