Curve Fitting and Over-optimization
A major stumbling block for many market timers is the phenomenon of curve fitting. This means that a given set of trading rules has been over-optimized to fit the particular dataset for which it has been back-tested. Unfortunately, if the trading rules are over-optimized they often fail to work on future data. Market timers attempt to avoid these difficulties in a number of ways. One is by looking for clusters of parameter values which work particularly well. Another is using out-of-sample data, which ostensibly allows the market timer to see how the system will work on unforeseen data. However, critics charge that once the strategy has been revised to reflect such data it is no longer "out-of-sample".
Read more about this topic: Market Timing
Famous quotes containing the words curve and/or fitting:
“Nothing ever prepares a couple for having a baby, especially the first one. And even baby number two or three, the surprises and challenges, the cosmic curve balls, keep on coming. We can’t believe how much children change everything—the time we rise and the time we go to bed; the way we fight and the way we get along. Even when, and if, we make love.”
—Susan Lapinski (20th century)
“Children’s view of the world and their capacity to understand keep expanding as they mature, and they need to ask the same questions over and over, fitting the information into their new level of understanding.”
—Joanna Cole (20th century)