Lee Smith (baseball) - Hall of Fame Candidacy

Hall of Fame Candidacy

In 1995, Pulitzer Prize-winning sportswriter Jim Murray selected Lee Smith as the active player most likely to be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, describing him as "the best one-inning pitcher the game ever saw," and "the best at smuggling a game into the clubhouse in history." Since his retirement two years later, much speculation has centered on Smith's specific chances of becoming a member of the Hall of Fame as well as the criteria for relief pitchers and closers in general. Only Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage, and Bruce Sutter have been inducted into the Hall of Fame based primarily on their relief pitching, and only Sutter has been inducted with fewer innings or starting appearances than Smith. In addition, Fingers and Eckersley – the only two to be elected in fewer than eight tries – won MVP awards, and Sutter captured a Cy Young Award, but Smith was rarely a serious contender for either trophy. He pitched in a transitional era, when closers began to be expected to pitch only a single inning; although Smith and Goose Gossage each pitched in slightly over 1,000 games, Gossage ended his career with over 500 more innings. Sutter was the first pitcher ever elected to the Hall with less than 1,700 innings pitched; Smith, who pitched fewer innings every year from 1982 through 1989 and never pitched more than 75 innings after 1990, ended his career with less than 1,300. In 2005, statistician Alan Schwarz described Smith as a long shot for election despite the career record, and used Retrosheet data to compare the saves of several top relievers including Smith, Eckersley, Fingers, Gossage and Sutter. While Smith's save percentage (82%), outs per save (3.72) and average of inherited runners per game (.50) compared well with Eckersley's marks (84%, 3.33, .49), his figures in the last two categories sharply trailed those of the others; Fingers, Gossage and Sutter all averaged between 4.72 and 4.82 outs per save, with Sutter inheriting .67 runners per game and the other two .86, suggesting their saves were harder to achieve. Smith started his career earning multiple-inning saves, but the strategy in baseball for closers changed, and he was later used as a one-inning pitcher. He had a higher career save percentage than Fingers, Gossage and Sutter. Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera both exceeded Smith's former record of 478 saves, and the two are now widely considered the best one-inning closers ever.

At Sutter's July 2006 induction to the Hall, Smith talked with reporters about his chances for election. Like many others, he commented that he was puzzled that he had not yet been selected. "This confuses the hell out of me. But I've always been baffled by it," he said. Smith's candidacy may have been hampered by the number of outstanding relievers on the ballot; Sutter had earned increasing vote totals for nine years before Smith appeared on the ballot, and Gossage—who first appeared on the ballot three years before Smith—has received greater support in each year from 2004 until his induction in 2008.

To be eligible for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame, a candidate needs to receive votes on 75 percent of the total ballots cast by the Baseball Writers Association of America. However, if the candidate receives less than 5 percent, he is no longer eligible for future Hall of Fame consideration by the BBWAA. Smith was first eligible for the ballot five years after he retired, and is allowed to be on the ballot through 2017 if he continues to meet the minimum vote threshold. Should he fail to be elected by the BBWAA, he will remain eligible for consideration by the Veterans Committee; under current rules, his first chance for consideration by that body would be in 2019 for the induction class of 2020. In his first year of eligibility, 2003, Smith received 210 votes, or 42 percent of the 496 total ballots cast. The following year, Smith only received 185 votes, or 37 percent of the 506 total ballots cast. In 2005, Smith improved from the previous year's results, and received a total of 200 votes, or 39 percent of the 516 total cast. Smith came closer to joining the Hall of Fame in 2006 by receiving 45 percent of the ballots cast, or 234 votes. In 2007, Smith's received only 217 votes, just 40 percent of the 545 total ballots cast. Smith increased his total in 2008, with 235 votes, 43.3% of the total ballots cast. He received 44.5% of the vote in 2009 and 47.3% of the vote in 2010. In 2011, he received 45.3% of the vote.