January Effect - Criticism

Criticism

Burton Malkiel, ex-director of The Vanguard Group, asserts that seasonal anomalies such as the January Effect are transient and do not present investors with reliable arbitrage opportunities. He sums up his critique of the January Effect by stating that "Wall Street traders now joke that the “January effect” is more likely to occur on the previous Thanksgiving. Moreover, these nonrandom effects (even if they were dependable) are very small relative to the transactions costs involved in trying to exploit them. They do not appear to offer arbitrage opportunities that would enable investors to make excess risk adjusted returns."

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