Hurricane Wilma - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

A large area of disturbed weather developed across much of the Caribbean Sea during mid-October as a lower-tropospheric low interacted with a broad area of disturbed weather, aided by an upper-level low across the region. A broad area of low pressure developed on October 13 to the southeast of Jamaica, and slowly became more concentrated as upper-level wind shear gradually decreased. Dvorak classifications began on October 14, and by late October 15 the surface circulation in the system became well enough defined, with sufficiently organized deep convection, for the National Hurricane Center to designate the system as Tropical Depression Twenty-Four while located about 220 mi (350 km) east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

The depression drifted southwestward because of the influence of two ridges to its north and with warm water temperatures and a favorable upper-level environment it strengthened into Tropical Storm Wilma on October 17. Initially, development was slow, due to the large size of the storm and a flat pressure gradient. However, convection gradually organized, and from October 18 through October 19, Wilma underwent explosive deepening over the open waters of the Caribbean. In a 30- hour period, the pressure dropped from 982 mbar (hPa; 29 inHg) to the record-low of 882 mbar (hPa; 26.05 inHg), while the winds increased to 185 mph (295 km/h).

Wilma weakened below Category 5 intensity on October 20 to 155 mph (250 km/h) due to an eyewall replacement cycle and began to turn towards the northwest and further decreased in forward speed. The once tiny 2.3 mi (3.7 km) eye was replaced by a 46 mi (74 km) eye. Late on October 21, Wilma made landfall on the island of Cozumel at around 2145 UTC with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and then again made a second landfall on the Mexican mainland six hours later and only slightly weaker. Wilma continued to slowly drift towards the north over the Yucatán Peninsula, although it weakened to a moderate hurricane while over land, it reemerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico on October 23 around 0000 UTC. Despite Wilma spending 24 hours over land, it reemerged with little intensity lost, and began to re-intensify shortly after. This was perhaps due to its large size and because the majority of its circulation remained over the warm waters of the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. A powerful trough turned the hurricane to the northeast and accelerated its forward motion. Its large eye remained well-organized, and Wilma intensified despite increasing amounts of wind shear, briefly producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h) before hitting Cape Romano, Florida as a 120 mph (195 km/h) major hurricane(although maximum sustained winds at the Florida landfall, according to some sources, might have been stronger).

Wilma crossed the state in about 4.5 hours and weakened to winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) after entering the Atlantic Ocean near Jupiter, Florida. Key West received several feet of water in the low-lying areas and flooded homes. The Lower Keys also experienced an unusual flood: it occurred twice. First, as the storm approached Florida, it pushed water across the keys from south to north. As the storm finally crossed into the Everglades, all the water that had been pushed by the storm was released as Wilma crossed the peninsula. The water then raced back across the Lower Keys a second time and went back out to sea. This caused additional flooding and costly damage. Possibly due to less friction of the eyewall or moving over warm waters of the Gulf Stream, Wilma again re-intensified to reach winds of 125 mph (200 km/h), before cold air and wind shear penetrated the inner core of convection. On October 26, it transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, and the next day the remnants of Wilma were absorbed by another extratropical storm over Atlantic Canada.