Hurricane Pauline (1968) - Meteorological History

Meteorological History

The Intertropical Convergence Zone disturbance that developed into Hurricane Pauline was first noticed by meteorologists 200 mi (320 km) southeast of Acapulco and 1,500 mi (2,400 km)-2,000 mi (3,200 km) west of dissipating Tropical Storm Orla. The disturbance was in a large area of convection west of Guatemala in the Gulf of Tehuantepec that began to spread 500 mi (800 km) to the west-northwest on September 26. Satellite imagery at this time showed an area of reflective clouds roughly 500 mi (800 km) long and 200 mi (320 km) wide. Shortly thereafter, the disturbance was upgraded into a tropical depression. After being upgraded, a vortex began to organize at its center and the depression began to intensify. On September 29, a ship 200 mi (320 km) south of the center reported winds of 17 mph (27 km/h) to 23 mph (37 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 1008 mbar, the only pressure reading left on best track data for the entire season. Other than this ship, all other active boats steered away from the center of the developing system. Later that day, it was determined that the depression had reached tropical storm strength.

After being named, Pauline displayed signs of a tight circulation, but satellite pictures were unable to pick up any distinct features due to nearby cirrus outflow. Later that day, however, satellites picked up a feature in the hurricane that resembled an eye, but closer inspection showed that the eye was either a shadow or a gap between bands and that the real center was 50 mi (80 km) west of the eye. On September 30, the storm turned to the northwest and its forward speed accelerated to 9 mph (14 km/h). Around this time, a satellite picture showed a genuine eye beginning to form and banding features became apparent. Even though the picture was distorted due to by electronic problems, the tropical storm was subsequently upgraded to hurricane intensity. On October 1, the ship Overseas Joyce recorded 80 mph (130 km/h) to 85 mph (137 km/h) north-northeast winds, a heavy swell from the east-southeast and a pressure of 1002 mbar. An estimate based on satellite pictures placed the Overseas Joyce at 15 mi (24 km) to 20 mi (32 km) away from the center. Another nearby ship, the Golden Eagle, reported south-southeast winds of 50 mph (80 km/h) and high seas 75 mi (121 km) east of the center.

Further investigation into the hurricane was limited to ship reports, and a satellite image on October 1 was mostly not helpful due to another electronic problem; however, it showed that the hurricane had shrunk. A United States Air Force reconnaissance plane flew into the hurricane that day and reported that the eyewall was open on the southwest quadrant. After the breakup of the first eyewall, a break in the clouds lead to the possibility that another eye was forming 30 mi (48 km) to the north-northwest of the previous eye.

No information on the hurricane was available for October 2, when it made landfall near Ciudad Constitutión in Baja California Sur. After landfall, La Paz reported winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) from the northwest, which began weakening in the next hour. Satellite imagery showed that Pauline had moved over the Gulf of California, the interaction with land having weakened it to a tropical storm. The storm moved north, making a second landfall near Navojoa. The storm continued inland, passing directly over Ciudad Obregón. The storm dissipated south-southeast of Sierra Vista in Arizona.