Origins of The Term
Chang-Jin Kim and Charles Nelson (1999) and Margaret McConnell and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós (2000) calculated that U.S. output volatility had declined substantially in the early 1980s. This phenomenon was called a "great moderation" by James Stock and Mark Watson in their 2002 paper, "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?". It was brought to the attention of the wider public by Ben Bernanke (then member and now chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve) in a speech at the 2004 meetings of the Eastern Economic Association.
Read more about this topic: Great Moderation
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