Farmers' Almanac - Weather Prediction

Weather Prediction

Weather prediction has always been a major feature of the Farmers' Almanac. The Almanac Publishing Company claims readers of the Farmers’ Almanac have attributed an 80 to 85 percent accuracy rate to the publication’s annual forecasts. However independent studies that retrospectively compare the weather with the predictions have not shown them more accurate than chance.

Predictions for each edition are made as far as two years in advance. The Farmers’ Almanac publishers are highly secretive about the method used to make its predictions, only stating publicly that it is a "top secret mathematical and astronomical formula, that relies on sunspot activity, tidal action, planetary position and many other factors." The identity of the Farmers’ Almanac weather forecaster is also a secret. The Almanac’s forecaster is referred to by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee.

The U.S. retail edition of the Farmers’ Almanac contains 16 months of weather predictions for seven differentiated U.S. climatic zones, beginning in September of the publication year (always the year prior to the edition year – for instance, the 2007 edition was released in September 2006) and extending until December of the following year.

The seven zones are:

1. Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, and Virginia;
2. Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky;
3. North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida;
4. Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado;
5. Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Texas, and New Mexico;
6. Idaho, Washington, and Oregon;
7. Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and California.

The U.S. edition of the Farmers' Almanac does not include forecasts for Alaska or Hawaii.