Extrapolated Runs - Pros and Cons of Extrapolated Runs

Pros and Cons of Extrapolated Runs

Along with Palmer's Linear Weights, XR is the most accurate of the linear run estimators, in terms of predicting team runs scored. And unlike James' RC, it doesn't artificially inflate the runs produced by individual players who combine high OBPs and SLGs. It is also much easier to calculate than Base Runs.

However, like any linear formula, there is no guarantee that it will work outside of the context in which it was developed (in this case, seasons from 1955–1997).

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    Quite generally, the familiar, just because it is familiar, is not cognitively understood. The commonest way in which we deceive either ourselves or others about understanding is by assuming something as familiar, and accepting it on that account; with all its pros and cons, such knowing never gets anywhere, and it knows not why.... The analysis of an idea, as it used to be carried out, was, in fact, nothing else than ridding it of the form in which it had become familiar.
    Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770–1831)

    Quite generally, the familiar, just because it is familiar, is not cognitively understood. The commonest way in which we deceive either ourselves or others about understanding is by assuming something as familiar, and accepting it on that account; with all its pros and cons, such knowing never gets anywhere, and it knows not why.... The analysis of an idea, as it used to be carried out, was, in fact, nothing else than ridding it of the form in which it had become familiar.
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