Expected Value and Choice Under Risk
In the presence of risky outcomes, a decision maker could use the expected value criterion as a rule of choice: higher expected value investments are simply the preferred ones. For example, suppose there is a gamble in which the probability of getting a $100 payment is 1 in 80 and the alternative, and far more likely, outcome, is getting nothing. Then the expected value of this gamble is $1.25. Given the choice between this gamble and a guaranteed payment of $1, by this simple expected value theory people would choose the $100-or-nothing gamble. However, under expected utility theory, some people would be risk averse enough to prefer the sure thing, even though it has a lower expected value, while other less risk averse people would still choose the riskier, higher-mean gamble.
Read more about this topic: Expected Utility Hypothesis
Famous quotes containing the words expected, choice and/or risk:
“For me chemistry represented an indefinite cloud of future potentialities which enveloped my life to come in black volutes torn by fiery flashes, like those which had hidden Mount Sinai. Like Moses, from that cloud I expected my law, the principle of order in me, around me, and in the world.... I would watch the buds swell in spring, the mica glint in the granite, my own hands, and I would say to myself: “I will understand this, too, I will understand everything.””
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“People are capable of doing an awful lot when they have no choice and I had no choice. Courage is when you have choices.”
—Terry Anderson, U.S. hostage. International Herald Tribune (Paris, May 6, 1992)
“We saw the risk we took in doing good,
But dared not spare to do the best we could
Though harm should come of it”
—Robert Frost (1874–1963)