The expected return (or expected gain) is the expected value of a random variable usually representing a gain, i.e. the weighted-average outcome in gambling, probability theory, economics or finance.
It is calculated by using the following formula:
- E(R) = Sum: probability (in scenario i) × the return (in scenario i) .
How do you calculate the average of a probability distribution? As denoted by the above formula, simply take the probability of each possible return outcome and multiply it by the return outcome itself. For example, if you knew a given investment had a 50% chance of earning a 10 return, a 25% chance of earning 20 and a 25% chance of earning -10, the expected return would be equal to 7.5:
- E(R) = 0.5 × 10 + 0.25 × 20 + 0.25 × (-10) = 7.5 .
Although this is what you expect the return to be, there is no guarantee that it will be the actual return.
Read more about Expected Return: Discrete Scenarios, Continuous Scenarios, Alternate Definition
Famous quotes containing the words expected and/or return:
“Perhaps of all our untamed quadrupeds, the fox has obtained the widest and most familiar reputation.... His recent tracks still give variety to a winter’s walk. I tread in the steps of the fox that has gone before me by some hours, or which perhaps I have started, with such a tip-toe of expectation as if I were on the trail of the Spirit itself which resides in the wood, and expected soon to catch it in its lair.”
—Henry David Thoreau (1817–1862)
“I can neither return your love nor dismiss it.”
—Mason Cooley (b. 1927)