Evolutionary Progress - Theoretical Perspective

Theoretical Perspective

Organisms adapt to their local environment. As long as the local environment is stable, we can expect to observe small-scale trends, as organisms become increasingly adapted to the local environment. Gould (1997) argues that there are no global (largest-scale) trends in evolution, because traits that are advantageous for some local environment are detrimental for some other local environment.

Although it is difficult to measure complexity, it seems uncontroversial that mammals are more complex than bacteria. Gould (1997) agrees, but claims that this apparent largest-scale trend is a statistical artifact. Bacteria represent a minimum level of complexity for life on Earth today. Gould (1997) argues that there is no selective pressure for higher levels of complexity, but there is selective pressure against complexity below the level of bacteria. This minimum required level of complexity, combined with random mutation, implies that the average level of complexity of life must increase over time. Gould (1997) uses the analogy of a random walk that begins near a wall. Although the walk is random, the walker cannot pass through the wall, so we should expect the walker to move increasingly further from the wall as time passes. This does not imply that the walker is driven away from the wall. The wall is analogous to the complexity level of bacteria. We should expect evolution to wander increasingly further from this level of complexity, but it does not imply that evolution is driven towards increasing complexity.

In response to Gould's (1997) critique, Turney (2000) presents a computational model in which there is a largest-scale trend towards increasing evolutionary versatility. This trend requires continual change. Although this model shows that largest-scale trends are compatible with evolutionary theory, the model has not yet been empirically confirmed.