Methods of Accounting For Uncertainty
Stochastic or "ensemble" forecasting is used to account for uncertainty. It involves multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model by using different physical parametrizations or varying initial conditions. The ensemble forecast is usually evaluated in terms of an average of the individual forecasts concerning one forecast variable, as well as the degree of agreement between various forecasts within the ensemble system, as represented by their overall spread. Ensemble spread is diagnosed through tools such as spaghetti diagrams, which show the dispersion of one quantity on prognostic charts for specific time steps in the future. Another tool where ensemble spread is used is a meteogram, which shows the dispersion in the forecast of one quantity for one specific location. It is common for the ensemble spread to be too small to incorporate the solution which verifies, which can lead to a misdiagnosis of model uncertainty; this problem becomes particularly severe for forecasts of the weather about 10 days in advance.
Read more about this topic: Ensemble Forecasting
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