Diversionary Foreign Policy - Effects

Effects

Intended

Generally, the pursuit of a diversionary foreign policy may offer the leader in power four benefits, all of which increase their ability to remain in power:

  1. A successful diversionary foreign policy could increase support for the domestic regime. This in turn increases that government's time to address their internal trouble.
  2. Artificial tension created from the international conflict may justify a leaders' suppression of dissent.
  3. The war abroad could cause the population to simply be distracted from the issues that induced the original dissatisfaction with the government.
  4. The external threat may unify the country through the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome effect by creating a new out-group other than the government for the population to direct its dissatisfaction.

Negative

However, all of these benefits depend on success in the diversionary war that the government facing domestic strife incites. Failure in these international actions would backfire against the leader's initial intent. As a result, the leader would likely face more domestic strife, possibly hastening his or her loss of power Nevertheless, this possible negative effect is addressed in the Diversionary War Theory. The theory itself states that rational leaders facing a near inevitable removal from office become more likely to gamble on a risky diversionary war. If the existing dissatisfaction is prompting their removal from office, a diversionary foreign policy only leaves room for gain

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