MIRV Upgrades
The current force of DF-5 missiles is deployed with a single warhead, but in November 1983 China inaugurated a DF-5A modification program to arm these ICBMs with MIRVed warheads. Technical difficulties, however, had stalled the program. The PLA leadership may have planned to MIRV the DF-5A system, however there is no evidence that they have been deployed.
The Federation of American Scientists asserts that despite having the theoretical ability to develop MIRV payloads, China has not deployed or even flight tested MIRV buses or MRV delivery payloads due to the high cost of development and deployment, and a lack of military necessity.Other analysts, such as John Tkacik of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, assert that China has flight-tested MIRV buses and begun equipping its ICBMs with such vehicles.
While the Defense Intelligence Agency and arms control oriented NGOs believe that China's nuclear arsenal has not significantly increased from the 200-300 warheads it had deployed and in stockpile in the early 1980s, analysis by former Russian Strategic Rocket Forces commander Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin estimates China's nuclear arsenal amounts to 1,600 to 1,800 warheads, and Georgetown University professor and former DOD nuclear strategist Philip Karber estimates the Chinese arsenal to consist of up to 3,000 warheads. This would suggest that China treats its strategic nuclear arsenal as a high priority.
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