Crime in The United States - Crime Over Time

Crime Over Time

Crime has been a long-standing concern in the United States, with high rates at the beginning of the 20th century compared to parts of Western Europe. In 1916, 198 homicides were recorded in Chicago, a city of slightly over 2 million at the time. This level of crime was not exceptional when compared to other American cities such as New York City, but was much higher relative to European cities, such as London, which then had three times the population but recorded only 45 homicides in the same year.

In the long term, homicide in America has been in decline since colonial times.

As shown in the charts above, reported violent crime nationwide nearly quadrupled between 1960 and its peak in 1991. Property crime more than doubled over the same period. Since 1993, crime has declined steeply. Several theories have been proposed to explain the cause.

1. The number of police officers increased considerably in the 1990s.
2. The prison population has been expanded since the mid-1970s.
3. Starting in the mid-1980s, the crack cocaine market grew rapidly before declining again a decade later. Some authors have pointed towards the link between violent crimes and crack use.
4. One hypothesis suggests a causal link between legalized abortion and the drop in crime during the 1990s.
5. Another hypothesis suggests reduced lead exposure as the cause; Scholar Mark A.R. Kleiman writes: "Given the decrease in lead exposure among children since the 1980s and the estimated effects of lead on crime, reduced lead exposure could easily explain a very large proportion—certainly more than half—of the crime decrease of the 1994-2004 period. A careful statistical study relating local changes in lead exposure to local crime rates estimates the fraction of the crime decline due to lead reduction as greater than 90 percent.

The year 2010 was overall the most free of serious crime in almost forty years. The recent overall decrease spans all types of such crime, with violent and property crimes having reached an all-time low. The homicide rate in particular decreased 51% between its record high point in 1991 and 2010.

From 2000-2008, the year-by-year homicide rate continuously decreased.

While the homicide rate decreased continuously between 1991 and 2000 from 9.8 homicides per 100,000 persons to 5.5 per 100,000, it remained at 5.4-5.7 until 2009, when it dipped down to 5.0, and continued to drop in 2010 to 4.8.

In contrast to the recent sharp decrease in the homicide rate, the rates of other violent crimes and of property crimes, although they have continuously decreased recently, have decreased at a considerably slower pace than in the 1990s. Overall, the crime rate in the U.S. was the same in 2009 as in 1968, with the homicide rate being roughly the same as in 1964. Violent crime overall, however, is still at the same level as in 1973, despite having decreased steadily since 1991.

Crimes per 100,000 population

SOURCES: US Bureau of Justice Statistics (2004), Federal Bureau of Investigation, (2010)