Cone of Uncertainty - Applications of The Cone of Uncertainty

Applications of The Cone of Uncertainty

One way to account for the Cone of Uncertainty in the project estimate is to first determine a 'most likely' single-point estimate and then calculate the high-low range using predefined multipliers (dependent on the level of uncertainty at that time). This can be done with formulas applied to spreadsheets, or by using a project management tool like LiquidPlanner that allows the task owner to enter a low/high ranged estimate and will then create a schedule that will include this level of uncertainty.

The Cone of Uncertainty is also used extensively as a graphic in hurricane forecasting, where its most iconic usage is more formally known as the NHC Track Forecast Cone, and more colloquially known as the Error Cone, Cone of Probability, or the Cone of Death. (Note that the usage in hurricane forecasting is essentially the opposite of the usage in software development. In software development, the uncertainty surrounds the current state of the project, and in the future the uncertainty decreases, whereas in hurricane forecasting the current location of the storm is certain, and the future path of the storm becomes increasingly uncertain.) Over the past decade, storms have traveled within their projected areas two-thirds of the time, and the cones themselves have shrunk due to improvements in methodology. The NHC first began in-house five-day projections in 2001, and began issuing such to the public in 2003. It is currently working in-house on seven-day forecasts, but the resultant Cone of Uncertainty is so large that the possible benefits for disaster management are problematic.