Coercive Diplomacy - Framework For Coercive Diplomacy

Framework For Coercive Diplomacy

According to Alexander George, coercive diplomacy seeks to achieve three objectives. First, it attempts to persuade an adversary to turn away from its goal. Second, it seeks to convince an adversary to reverse an action already taken. Third, it may persuade an adversary to make “fundamental changes in its government.” When constructing a coercive diplomacy strategy, policymakers must consider certain variables or “empty boxes” that must be filled. They must decide “what to demand of the opponent; whether and how to create a sense of urgency for compliance with demand; whether and what kind of punishment to threaten for noncompliance; and whether to rely solely on the threat of punishment or also to offer conditional inducements of a positive character to secure acceptance of the demand.”

Alexander George developed a framework in which a number of “variants” or methods of using coercive diplomacy could be deployed to achieve these objectives. These variants include the following:

1. Ultimatum
2. Tacit Ultimatum
3. Try-and-See
4. Gradual Turning of the Screw

The first variant of the 'coercive diplomacy' strategy is the classic 'ultimatum'. An ultimatum itself has three distinct components: “a demand on the opponent; a time limit or sense of urgency for compliance with the demand; and a threat of punishment for noncompliance that is both credible to the opponent and sufficiently potent to impress upon him that compliance is preferable.”

'Tacit ultimatum' is similar to 'ultimatum' except that it doesn't set forth an explicit time limit.

The third variant of coercive diplomacy, the 'Try-and-See', addresses strictly the first component of the 'ultimatum' variant, “a demand on the opponent.” There is no time limit set, no sense of urgency conveyed, instead the coercer makes a single threat or takes a single action “to persuade the opponent before threatening or taking another step.”

Finally, the 'Gradual Turning of the Screw' approach is similar to the 'Try-and-See' method in that it makes a threat but then “relies the threat of a gradual, incremental increase of coercive pressure rather than threatening large escalation to strong, decisive military action if the opponent does not comply.”

When using the coercive diplomacy strategy, it is important to understand that policymakers may shift from one variant option to another depending on the success of each step taken.